Thursday, 12 July 2012

Growing the bank

Betfree247 made an interesting comment to my last post, prompting me to think a bit more about what building a bank actually entails and how to go about doing it. I started trading primarily to see if I could generate a full time income from it and 'retire' from the rat race. Some four years on I can safely say that, yes, you can generate a full time income from it.

You can. I can't.

I simply don't have the right mindset to do it ~ and it's no good trying to pretend otherwise. Although my trades are generally speaking profitable I still, with monotonous regularity, get in too deep, let a loser run, panic out of a winner for fear of it becoming a loser etc etc etc. Sometimes, having committed one of those crimes I chase to recover. The reason I carry on is because I enjoy it and because I'm NOT dependent on it to help with my domestic finances, at all.

Having said that, who couldn't use a few hundred quid a month, tax free? So what's the best way of doing this and what do you need to to do to achieve it?

Other bloggers have written about the dangers of setting short term targets. The theory being that if you have a target of say, £20 per night, and the first trade loses £10 that you then enter another trade for the wrong reasons. The converse is that if the first trade makes £50 you then enter another trade for different, but still wrong, reasons. In both cases the smart thing to have done would have been to take the plug off your pc and sit with the missus watching Eastenders, tomorrow being another day. It would seem you can't win if you approach it in this way. I'm not 100% convinced by this argument, but as time has gone by I am concluding that there's a lot to be said for it.

So if you aren't trading to a financial or percentile target, how else can you make long term gains? The only other way, surely, is to only enter the right trades and to have in your mind one of two outcomes... 1) that the trade will either win or it won't and you'll live with the result or 2) that at the outset you set pre-determined exit points so that you make or lose an acceptable amount. If your immediate reaction is that 2) is similar to setting short term targets I'd have some sympathy with that viewpoint, but if you stop and think about it they are totally different in terms of mental approach. Both approaches, to be successful, depend on you making enough on the winners to outweigh the loss on the losers. That sounds like stating the obvious, but it leads nicely to my next point...

The other point that I would make is that to succeed long term, like it or not, you need to put  effort into choosing your trades. Spraying money around across lots of different sports and markets without some clear strategy is a no hoper in my opinion. I know that IF I just restricted my trading to my favourite trade I would make money in the long run. I've honed and tweaked it just about as much as I believe I can now, although to be honest it hasn't changed in essence that much. My problem is, always has been and probably now always will be, a lack of discipline. I don't seem to be able to stick to the straight and narrow.

As Betfree247 concludes in his comment: 'Trying to work out the right theory for yourself really is the key to this I believe, we need to find out what we're comfortable with and try to implement that. It's definitely not a one size fits all scenario.' 


I couldn't agree more!

7 comments:

  1. Great post Gundulf, and thanks for the honourable mention :)

    To pick on the point of working out the right theory for yourself - I would pick option 1 of the two you mention with regard to trading. The reason being is because I have appalling discipline and find it very hard to trade out at a pre determined exit point if things start to go wrong. That's why I would generally go for option 1 of the two you gave.

    In a way that is my way of trying to avoid a problem, as opposed to trying to cure or fight it.

    I suppose I am trying to strip down my trading and piece by piece cut out all the practises that don't suit my mental approach to trading/betting.

    I can totally relate to your point about just using your favourite trade. One of my biggest sins has been 'spraying money around' as you put it, on loads of sports (and other ridiculous things) I know nothing about and then wondering where all my money has gone.

    Generally this happens after a loss, or I have been too cautious (in an attempt to be more disciplined) and not done a bet that has won quite easily.

    There's another Cul-de-sac, being too cautious!!

    It sounds like we have similar problems or traits when it comes to this. I too believe that a living could be made out of this, but like yourself I doubt I have the discipline.

    I've tried loads of different systems and mental approaches to try and find the right formula (I was eluding too in the last post) to make a go of it, but still I always end up back at square one.

    One of the techniques I'm considering trying when the new football season starts is to just try and extract 4-6% a week profit (of betting bank) out of trading live games with plenty of liquidity, pre match.

    No betting, just pre match small percentage profits and see where it ends up. I already foresee a problem with it though, and that is patience. Will I be happy with winning a few quid a week as I build my bank up?

    I do believe that this method could help me achieve what I commented on in your last post, the chance to just build my bank up a few percent a week without taking any stupid risks.

    Sounds easy doesn't it :)

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    1. It always sounds easy, and therein lies part of the problem for most, I suspect.

      With regard to making small profits pre-match the only snag is that you need to decide in advance how to handle the market going against you. I had a bout of very successful 0-0 trades until I let an unmatched lay to a higher back go in play.

      You can guess the outcome, and the stake involved was much higher than I would ever have used in an in play trade.

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    2. I think I remember reading about that 0-0, was it the time you were talking to your neighbour and missed the kick off?

      I did a similar one myself when I was trying to trade Under/Over 3.5 goals pre kick off last season on the Chelsea V Man City game. I was guilty of placing my pre match bet on what I thought would happen in the game, as opposed to what I thought the market would do pre match.

      It ended up with the game kicking off with all my betting bank sitting on Under 3.5 goals, needing the odds to shorten to green up.

      I thought it will only take a couple of minutes, it will be no problem.

      Balotelli scored within 30 seconds to blow that idea and to say I had to endure a torrid time waiting for the odds to come in again would be an understatement.

      I've learnt my lesson now and would always get out for a loss pre match if needs be (until the next time that is).

      But I know what you mean, you still need to be really careful even though the game hasn't kicked off.

      I think the worst case scenario would be a couple of percent loss on one side of the trade, with a scratch on the other. Unless something really drastic happened pre match to change the odds massively.

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  2. Gun, this article was so insightful I have republished it on my blog. I am sure we have a different readership so thought my readers might appreciate your input into a discussion I often have with people.

    Keep up the good work.

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    1. Nick, you're most welcome to share you url mate - can't find it through your profile for some reason??

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  3. Very interesting thoughts Gun,I am very new to the trading world and am looking it at a long term project to try and increase my income (I don't have to but would like to so theres no great pressure on me). From my early experiences I am finding that I think I will settle on a smaller number of regular strats which I can become proficient in and keep hitting the same markets as I guess using a myriad of strats until you are an expert is a bit like your point of trading on things you don't know much about. Initially the Clint was my favoured option but having started to use the SG regularly with good results I think this is going to be my main strat as its simple and low risk. I think I have the discipline required although I do feel I could be too disciplined which possibly makes me over cautious on some occasions. I see scalping as another good opportunity when the new season starts. Its good to hear you believe a long term profit can be made from this, guess time will tell if I am able to. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and views, very good for people like myself learning the ropes.
    Charlie

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    1. From my own experiences, being over cautious can be very dangerous.

      In the past it has lead to me getting very frustrated and doing something stupid if I have not put a bet on that I fancied, and it has come in.

      Getting the balance on when to, and when not to, place a bet is an important skill in itself in my view.

      In the past I have been guilty of concentrating most of my thoughts onto systems or strategies, etc, and not concentrating on bet selection.

      Unlike yourself Charlie, I'm generally more guilty of putting on too many bets. Then when I do reign myself in, I find it can cause me just as much trouble as I described above.

      Balance is certainly a problem for me.

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