Wednesday 9 May 2012

I don't remember liking marshmallows as a child...

..but on reading the research by eminent American academics over at Cassini's I reckon I must have had a secret passion for them! I'll let you read it for yourself, but suffice to say that I would have been one of those kids who took the immediate marshmallow and resisted the promise of a second at a later time. There are definite parallels in my trading today, so maybe these academics were onto something.

The comments were made in relation to a debate about how one can use a betting bank. Cassini's view is to let it grow, to treat it almost as some kind of self-contained fund, and that to withdraw from it is somehow counter-productive. To put it another way, keep re-investing your profits and let it grow slowly and steadily, increasing your stakes in relation to the growing size of your bank. There is a lot of sense in this...a larger bank is more able to survive the occasional bad run, and also allows the luxury of being able to invest in longer term markets, such as the season long markets in the various football leagues discussed in the first part of the same post. It also is extremely sensible in light of the oft-quoted statement that you shouldn't bet with money that you can't afford to lose. If you build a substantial bank and then blow it (after you have learnt to trade) you really should consider swallowing razor blades as a hobby instead.

Those of you who have wondered why there is always money available to lay 0-0 at 1000 when the score is 3-0 should know that it's there for two reasons. Firstly to catch hamfisted mis-bets such as the one poor old Eddie made a week or two ago, and secondly for people with small banks to back 0-0 to free up the money they're invested in a lay of 0-0 for use on other markets after a goal has been scored.

Having said that I can't help feeling that most people, myself included, do treat the betting bank as a sort of interest bearing current account. Whilst agreeing that a bank should ideally keep growing I personally see no harm in setting a goal - be it a 'luxury' purchase or treat - as a reward or incentive to oneself.

Returning briefly to the academic research, Mrs Gun does occasionally mutter something to do with 'delaying gratification'. I really must ask her if she liked marshmallows when she was a child one day.




5 comments:

  1. I totally agree with letting a Betting Bank grow and using a percentage (5-7ish %) of it to trade or gamble (as has been the case all too often for me I'm afraid).

    The reason I like percentage is because what you win or lose is relative to the condition of your betting bank - as I'm sure you know better than me.

    As opposed to some people who just use a rigid £10, £20, £30, etc stakes, and see some growth, but will take years to see any real decent profits (I would imagine, but stand to be corrected).

    The problem I've had is every time my account reaches a certain point, I find that I think I've cracked it and start 'betting' and taking more risks than I previously did, before soon discovering my account is back somewhere near where it started.... One day I'll hopefully learn :)

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  2. Our old friend discipline rearing its ugly head again, I'm afraid.

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  3. That's the one...

    Had many a row with him, won the odd battle, but still to win the war.

    Keep on trying :)

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  4. After all the time I've been trading I still have issues with him, but reckon, at long last, to be slightly ahead on points. I hope to deliver a knock out blow soon!

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