I have written previously about the opportunities presented by the Any Unquoted score in the Correct Score market. Just this week there have been two matches that I have noticed, and traded, both of which featured very low AU prices at kick off. One was in South America a night or two ago, but tonight there was a price on offer which really just had to be taken on.
In 16 Bundesliga matches prior to tonight Bayern Munich had scored 4 or more goals twice at home and once away from home. No opponent has so far been able to knock four or more past the Bavarians. Their opponents, Borussia Moenchengladbach (and I'm not going to type that bloody lot out every time! - let them be 'BMG'!), had played the same number of games and had conceded 4 or more twice, both times away from home. They had recorded 1 AU scoreline in their favour so far this season.
So in 32 games involving these two sides so far an AU score had been recorded on 6 occasions. Put another way it occurred 18.75% of the total. Yet I was able to take AU on at odds of 2.98 to lay pre kick off. The implied percentage of those odds is c33%. For those of you as inept at the maths of betting / trading as I am that is to say the market saw the possibility of four or more goals at approximately twice that suggested by the trend from 32 games.
In my mind's eye the odds on offer at kick off were roughly what I would have expected to see with Bayern a goal to the good after say fifteen minutes. To be honest my original intention was to have stayed in the trade for about twenty minutes before backing AU with the same stake as my original £50 lay and await the onslaught of goals for a free bet on that score. BMG, however, had other ideas and took the lead after about that period of time, whilst I was still in the trade. (As an aside, I noticed that 0-1 had been taken at prices north of 50 just before the penalty was awarded - it was 9.6 at half time so some made a good few quid there I'd think). The nice thing about AU is that it is normally very low only if there is a massive favourite. If the underdog scores first the market doesn't react in anywhere near the same fashion as it would had the favourites scored first. So I decided to tough it out and stick with the trade.
All credit to BMG - they held on at 0-1 until some way into the second half and ended up taking a very well earned point home with them. I ended up taking the liability out of the lay as the price headed into the 8's and just let it run all the way home from there.
These opportunities happen several times in a season and I for one actively seek them out. Sure it's a bit of a liability laying at odds of between 3 and 5 but in my opinion it's always worth looking beyond the obvious ' team A is gonna spank team B' kind of assumption - which is what effectively happened with this market. Give it a go with modest stakes and you'll see what I mean.
Hi Gun, advice please?
ReplyDeleteBacked 1-0 and 0-1 and 1-1 for stakes 2:2:4 in a game expecting few goals. There was a goal in the first ten minutes (1-0).
Now either I cashout for a loss (about 50% of total stake) or add to the scattergun. I can cover 2-0, but I have a question.
When adding to a scattergun like this, where you already have stakes on 1-0 (current score) and 1-1 (one potential next score), how do you decide how much to put on 2-0 (the other potential next score):
- use the same *stake* you put on 2-0?
- use enough stake to match the *potential green* you have on 2-0?
Sorry anon, only just noticed your post! To be honest I tend to play it as I feel it. But I tend to think two, rather than one, goals ahead if that's any use to you.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the reply, no worries about timing. Shouldn't have gone into the match without an exit plan for all possible scenarios.
ReplyDeleteYou've got a post from Sept 2010 describing your 1-1/2-1/1-2 trade. Does thinking two goals ahead mean to trade 1-1/2-0/0-2 instead?
Merry Christmas to you and yours. Nice present from Rafa!
To be clear, as a general rule when trading this strategy I stick pretty much to the original plan these days. It's strange that despite many attempts to streamline / simplify / sanitise the original SG I keep returning to the basic trade!
ReplyDeleteIF I do react to a goal I normally do so by looking at the score two goals hence. So if 1-0 I'd look to cover 3-0 rather than 2-0 (2-1 already having been catered for obviously!)
It's impossible (and stupid to try) to cover all possibilities so I'd rather buy a bit of leverage at higher odds by covering a score two goals hence - on that basis at 2-0 I can either hold out for 2-1 or 3-0 or hedge both those to scratch or take a small loss.
Hope that helps.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteI have been thinking that there might be some value in laying the AUQ myself in certain matches. I came across this post after a google search on the matter. Great blog you have here!
A quick glance at tomorrow's matches and a couple stood out: Southampton-Man City and Dortmund-Hamburg. Regarding the latter, these teams have only had 2 matches out of 40 go to auq this season, yet auq is trading at 3.95-4 right now. Always a lot of goals in Dortmund matches though so may be a very stressful experience, but there seems to be value there.
Thanks for the kind words. The Any Unquoted is a favourite of mine, but a word of caution is needed. When it goes pear shaped, it really does go pear shaped! You can be underwater on an AU lay for uncomfortably long periods in some matches so be sure to either commit a sum you're prepared to lose or have a plan for an exit!
ReplyDelete