The domestic English football season got under way tonight with a 1-0 home win for Cardiff City, pinched in the dying embers of the game. For me the close season has provided poor cards, carrying poor liquidity, but has nonetheless been profitable over all. I have come to really enjoy trading Scandanavian and particularly Icelandic football, but am glad to be returning to trading 'normality'.
I think the new season offers another close run thing with the Premiership, and although it pains me as a Chelsea man to say it, think the two Manchester clubs will slog it out to the end. Of more interest in many ways is the Championship - that has all the hallmarks of a very close race, particularly at the 'business end' of the season.
Turning briefly to the European leagues I think the two that are of most interest to my style of trading are Ligues 1 & 2 and Serie A as my preferred trade relies a bit more on low scoring games than high scoring ones. I will doubtless do lots of trades in those three leagues, and indeed started with the Lille match this evening, which ended a useful and profitable 1-1.
I reviewed the blogs on my regular reading list today for the first time in a while, and was drawn to the discussions between SoccerDude and Cassini. Before anyone points it out I know that 'regular reading list' and 'for the first time in a while' are at odds with each other, but I've been busy at work! Both write humourous and informative blogs and it strikes me that in many ways they epitomise two different approaches to trading football.
Eddie prefers trading the in-play markets, and by trading I mean that he takes and adjusts positions in play, actively managing his exposure and the outcome.
Cassini prefers to arrive at what he considers a value bet, place it and then leave it to its fate, relying on getting the value right and, presumably, a good strike rate to make his money.
My preference is undoubtedly the former, and I'll share the reasons for those interested. Trading football is a hobby for me, that happens to make a modest amount of money. I have no real desire to spend hours building rating systems or researching statistics to come up with a stand alone bet; but more than that I haven't the confidence to place and go. You could argue that if I did the former I'd probably gain the latter, but I'm not convinced. I (and long term readers) know that I'd end up 'chasing' and getting frustrated and that it would soon cease being fun. It might even get expensive!
I'm much much more comfortable trading one single market most of the time - the Correct Score market. It's one that I know and understand. Yes, I get caught out - who doesn't? But it's happening a lot less frequently now, so I suppose in a way I have spent hours coming up with a rating system, albeit one that's largely in my head, and place my trades accordingly.
The one thing that I have noticed this close season is that I do considerably better when I concentrate on one match, and working it well, than when I am trying to manage four or five live situations. Which leads me to a bit of a dilema. I much prefer trading mutliple games - it's a hobby, remember? It's supposed to be fun! But I'm more effective when I trade just the one or maybe two markets at a time. So I suppose I need to prioritise - fun or money?
Fun.
Decision made!
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