Feeling all contrarian

After struggling to make a small profit from the incredibly dull affair between Brazil and Mexico I looked at the markets for the Italy v Brazil match. The world and his wife seemed to have concluded this would be another dire, low scoring match. I don't know how many times I've traded this kind of game before and then looked back and wished I'd gone against the perceived wisdom of the markets, but decided tonight to do something a little different.

I invested a whole £20 on backing 3-1, 1-3, 2-2 and 3-3 at kick off. Almost unbelievably by the half hour mark the Japanese were 2 goals to the good and my CS trade was looking good. Almost as unbelievably Japan were available to lay at 1.25 in Match Odds!! That just had to be taken, and sure enough by half time the Italians were back in the game at 1-2.

I was in very nice position now, and, with 1-3 showing enough profit to hedge CS for a no loss trade I took that profit and let the MO lay run. The 2-2 score was now a potential 'double bubble' - and the Azzuri duly obliged by equalising. A hedge of 2-2 gave me a healthy CS profit and the move to 3-2, coming as it did only a few minutes later, cemented the MO position to the extent that I hedged it and then immediately laid the Italians. And at this point I made a judgement call ... and got it wrong! The 3-3 score was available to hedge at 7.8 and I took it. I honestly didn't expect the game to have panned out as it had and it seemed reasonable to suspect that the Italians superior class would start to tell so I hedged out of 3-3. About three minutes before the equaliser.........

Cursing myself for missing a three figure hedge I laid the draw, only for the Italians to nick (a somewhat fortuitous?) win 4-3. Wow.

At 0-2 - the point at which I laid Japan in Match Odds my total exposure across both markets was £50 if I did nothing and the score stayed the same. As it happened I returned over 7 times that despite the (as it transpired) errant lay of 3-3 at 3-2.

I do a fair number of contrarian trades - most of them either lose or make modest profits. But, every now and again, something perfect like this one pops up and it's a great feeling! Try it!