Albert Einstein, when he wasn't working on his theory of relativity and other matters of scientific import, thus described the phenomenon of compound interest. Those with long memories or the ability to delve deep into this blog will remember or discover that it was with an exploration of compound interest that I started writing in my little corner of the interweb.
I mention it again after reading Cassini's piece on compounding and the wisdom of having, or of not having, daily targets. I haven't read the article in Ian Erskine's newsletter that Cassini quoted but it got me thinking. In a nutshell someone wrote that increasing your bank by 2-3% per day should be achievable. A quick spreadsheet reveals that if that statement refers to a compounded bank that by day 365 at 3% per day your bank would be just shy of £5,000,000 from a start balance of £100! The daily target for that day would be a modest £141,211.80. Clearly, as Cassini says, this is not viable and if it were that easy probably both he, I and every other trader would be out of work on a beach somewhere laying 1.1 shots for a hundred grand!
If, however, the author was referring to a 2-3% increase in bank size in a non compounded sense then that is completely different. A bank of £1000 returning £20 - £30 per day is entirely realistic - in fact you could even argue that you are under utilising that bank. Trading in that way for 25 days per month grows the bank by a handsome £500 - £750 per month. Slightly better than sticking that grand in the Nationwide!
Sunday, 8 July 2012
Monday, 2 July 2012
Farewell, Euro 2012
And what a great tournament it was, on the whole. The final itself, whilst not a classic, was a highly entertaining affair, enlivened by the relatively early Spanish goal. I had a feeling goals would be coming in the game after the quiet semi between the Iberian nations, and opted for a trade based around 1-1,2-2 and 3-3 staked 3:2:1. However, on looking at the correct score odds before kick off I just couldn't resist a semi-punt on Any Unquoted - available at a quite incredible 21!
I could have left a free trade on the above draw scores after the first Spanish goal by laying the AU off, but for some reason let it run. Needless to say I did green at 2-0 - genuinely not even really considering the possibility of a 4-0 result and convincing myself that laying the trade off at 4.4 represented great value. Ho hum, as they say, our old friend 20/20 hindsight comes to the fore again! Never mind, the trade rounded off a most profitable tournament for me, the only real downside being a completely stupid / idiotic / crazy bit of trading during an Argentinian match which completely wiped out the considerable profit I'd made on the first two group games with all those lovely 1-1, 1-2 2-1 games. It seems I'm destined never to learn!
The two goals that took Spain into the Any Unquoted territory were both scored by Chelsea players. I'm extremely pleased that these two have started pre-season training already. I've a good feeling about the prospects for my team in the forthcoming season, and am wondering to what extent my opinion that they offer good value at 6.4 in the Winner's market is down to good old fashioned bias! One trade (or, probably more accurately, punt) I will be entering, if I can find the damned thing, is to put a few quid on Torres to be the leading scorer in the Premiership - anyone know where that market is? I can't find it!
Finally for today I'd like to wish Lambretta all the very best in his forthcoming return to the gravy train. If you aren't familiar with his blog I'd strongly recommend it as an interesting and worthwhile read. I don't know if he will continue to trade in his spare time or indeed if he will continue to blog. Personally I hope he does both, but whatever he does he has my best wishes.
I could have left a free trade on the above draw scores after the first Spanish goal by laying the AU off, but for some reason let it run. Needless to say I did green at 2-0 - genuinely not even really considering the possibility of a 4-0 result and convincing myself that laying the trade off at 4.4 represented great value. Ho hum, as they say, our old friend 20/20 hindsight comes to the fore again! Never mind, the trade rounded off a most profitable tournament for me, the only real downside being a completely stupid / idiotic / crazy bit of trading during an Argentinian match which completely wiped out the considerable profit I'd made on the first two group games with all those lovely 1-1, 1-2 2-1 games. It seems I'm destined never to learn!
The two goals that took Spain into the Any Unquoted territory were both scored by Chelsea players. I'm extremely pleased that these two have started pre-season training already. I've a good feeling about the prospects for my team in the forthcoming season, and am wondering to what extent my opinion that they offer good value at 6.4 in the Winner's market is down to good old fashioned bias! One trade (or, probably more accurately, punt) I will be entering, if I can find the damned thing, is to put a few quid on Torres to be the leading scorer in the Premiership - anyone know where that market is? I can't find it!
Finally for today I'd like to wish Lambretta all the very best in his forthcoming return to the gravy train. If you aren't familiar with his blog I'd strongly recommend it as an interesting and worthwhile read. I don't know if he will continue to trade in his spare time or indeed if he will continue to blog. Personally I hope he does both, but whatever he does he has my best wishes.
Sunday, 24 June 2012
The wheels on the bus...
...they stand dead still.
Why, why, why, did England not take the game to a decidedly average Italian team tonight? A few years ago no-one would have had a high expectation against the Italians. The current Italian side cannot hold a candle to the days of Dino Zoff, Paolo di Rossi etc but still England contrived to play a defensive minded holding game with a totally unfit and ineffectual 'talisman' in the form of Rooney yet again failing to deliver on the big stage for his country.
Luckily for me, I had backed 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 so trading wise I did ok.
But I've got to say I am dismayed at our lack of attacking spirit. And why Hodgson put Jordan Henderson on in Scott Parker's place I really, really can't understand. Surely the way to win the game, at that stage, was to do so in 'normal' time? Parker might well have been out on his feet but surely getting Rooney off and putting Defoe on would have least given the Italians pause for thought? Or, if you must take Parker off, why not chance your arm with Oxlade-Chamberlain instead of Henderson?
With England's form in penalty shoot outs I was amazed to be able to lay that outcome at 2.74 at about half time extra time. I would happily have traded that win for another night in my local against the Germans on Thursday. The trade in that case would have been simple. Lump on Any Unquoted.
When does the Prem season start again so I can get back to trading properly??
Why, why, why, did England not take the game to a decidedly average Italian team tonight? A few years ago no-one would have had a high expectation against the Italians. The current Italian side cannot hold a candle to the days of Dino Zoff, Paolo di Rossi etc but still England contrived to play a defensive minded holding game with a totally unfit and ineffectual 'talisman' in the form of Rooney yet again failing to deliver on the big stage for his country.
Luckily for me, I had backed 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 so trading wise I did ok.
But I've got to say I am dismayed at our lack of attacking spirit. And why Hodgson put Jordan Henderson on in Scott Parker's place I really, really can't understand. Surely the way to win the game, at that stage, was to do so in 'normal' time? Parker might well have been out on his feet but surely getting Rooney off and putting Defoe on would have least given the Italians pause for thought? Or, if you must take Parker off, why not chance your arm with Oxlade-Chamberlain instead of Henderson?
With England's form in penalty shoot outs I was amazed to be able to lay that outcome at 2.74 at about half time extra time. I would happily have traded that win for another night in my local against the Germans on Thursday. The trade in that case would have been simple. Lump on Any Unquoted.
When does the Prem season start again so I can get back to trading properly??
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