tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26803531255441726852024-03-27T23:53:33.475+00:00Betfair Football Trading - the highs and lows!An ill disciplined blogger shares irregular and random trading experiences with anyone who has the patience to read them!gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.comBlogger313125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-1384364023050763242016-01-26T01:38:00.002+00:002016-01-26T01:38:43.862+00:00Hello again, blogosphereLong time no speak!<br />
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After a long period of apathy with respect to my blog, I thought I'd resurrect the old thing for a while. I've not stopped trading, rather I just ran out of ideas to write about, and my real life world has become more and more hectic in a bullish market meaning that I am tired and not minded to write as I used to.<br />
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The topic I'd like to address today is one that fascinates me.. namely the forthcoming EU Referendum. Betfair markets are usually uncannily accurate with political trades - until, that is, the British General Election last year. I made good money laying 'No overall majority' - but failed to maximise the win by exiting as soon as the Exit Polls started to suggest an upset was in the offing. That market was, of course, a three way market - Labour / Conservative / No overall majority. The EU Referendum market is a a two runner market:<br />
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As can be seen, the market strongly suggests we'll be voting to remain in the EEC - at the time of writing 'In' can (and in my mind, should!) be laid at 1.48 ~ in fact you'd probably get 1.47 if patient. I<br />
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I'm sure we've all got our own views on this subject, but a straw poll among people I know suggests to me that the 'In' price is on the low side. The opinion polls (official ones!) put the figures at closer to 50/50 and whilst I don't necessarily think it's that close I suspect there's a value lay to be had at the range trading at the moment.<br />
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As the date for the referendum has yet to be announced I think it's fair to assume there will be a period of stagnation in this market, so, apart from tying some money up, I don't see a massive downside to a lay at this time. In my opinion it's one of those markets where there's a lot more room above the price than there is below it.<br />
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Let's see if a profit can be generated.gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-17241130624729864692014-12-09T23:03:00.001+00:002014-12-09T23:03:21.336+00:00If it isn't broken, don't f**k about fixing it!Some might have noticed that I don't write much these days, but this latest brainwave from Betfair caused me to bash the keyboard once again.<br />
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I'm talking about 'Correct Score New' - they're in the process of doing away with my beloved Any Unquoted! They are replacing that one scoreline with, wait for it, three alternatives - 'Any other - Home', 'Any other - Away' and 'Any other draw'. Wow!<br />
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Apparently, we, the betting / trading public have been asking for these 'improvements' and it is justified by saying that AU is likely to be the favourite score at the outset of, say, Barca v Elche, and that therefore a back for AU is effectively a bet that Barca will win and score a hatful of goals in doing so. No shit, Sherlock!<br />
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I personally use AU in all kinds of ways, both backing and laying it as I see fit.. the appeal of that as a trading move will be severely limited now. My activity around that scoreline is far from limited to the kind of game they use in their justification - it's an essential part of the CS trader's armoury in my opinion.<br />
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As a result, my little bit of liquidity will be missing from that market. Times me by a few hundred / thousand others and how does that help either customers or Betfair themselves? Beats me!<br />
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If anyone can enlighten me, help me see the light or otherwise put any remotely positive slant on this appalling decision please do.gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-28916606117760813152014-09-17T19:11:00.003+01:002014-09-17T19:11:41.125+01:00Has the fat lady sung already?I see that in a rather opportunistic manner that the Betfair Sportsbook has already settled the 'No' bets in the Scottish Independence Referendum 'Majority' market. As over £10M has been matched on this market on the Exchange I doubt that too many people took whatever their Sportsbook offering was and to me it's little more than a cheap publicity stunt.<br />
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I have no strong feelings one way or the other as to whether our friends north of Hadrian's Wall wish to still be part of the Union or not, but I do find this kind of thing irksome and,for want of a better word, 'unfair'.<br />
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The Exchange has historically proven to be a more accurate political barometer than opinion polls. The last US Presidential market,for example, called the race much more accurately than the 'too close to call' reports we read about in the press and saw on the TV. This might well prove to be the case with the Referendum as well, but to trivialise something which so many people are quite clearly passionate about by calling it a done deal is, in my opinion, beneath the standards to which a company such as Betfair should be operating to.<br />
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I've been dabbling in the market for ages, even putting a post up on the forum at Geek's Toy about it way back in April. When the recent 'shock' poll put the 'Yes' campaign slightly ahead I was able to remove all my liability and leave a nice profit on 'Yes'. Since then we have witnessed a fantastic coming together of the British establishment, not to mention multi-nationals, central banks and others with forebodings of woe should the Jocks say 'Yes' tomorrow. I wonder whether this very negative campaigning might not cause the odd dour Scot to stick two proverbial fingers up at Westminster and say 'Aye'.<br />
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Any profit I might yet make on this market now lies, I feel, in the hours after the polls close at 10pm tomorrow night. I await the exit polls with a sense of anticipation, but with no loss should the status quo prevail.<br />
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I'm sure books have paid out on 'racing certainties' in between, but the last instance I can actually remember was in 2008. Stoke City had just been promoted to the Prem and had a fairly turgid time of it at the start of the season. At least one sportsbook paid out on 'Stoke to be relegated' very early on in the season. They finished twelfth.gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-25828601752247755582014-07-29T20:23:00.002+01:002014-07-29T20:23:51.878+01:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<object width="320" height="266" class="BLOGGER-youtube-video" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/qu_-ZoIX2KQ/0.jpg"><param name="movie" value="https://www.youtube.com/v/qu_-ZoIX2KQ?version=3&f=user_uploads&c=google-webdrive-0&app=youtube_gdata" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><embed width="320" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/v/qu_-ZoIX2KQ?version=3&f=user_uploads&c=google-webdrive-0&app=youtube_gdata" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object></div>
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A little vid I made of a mixed evening's trading a couple of weeks ago. My first attempt at a 'videslfie' - my PC nearly found itself in the Thames a number of times during the 'editing' phase - so please forgive the rather rambling commentary, especially at the end where the motion stopped before my mouth did.gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-78914207927524450852014-06-13T01:48:00.001+01:002014-06-13T01:48:30.301+01:00More than a little disappointed.....by the officiating in the WC opener. I thought it was really poor and sincerely hope no precedent has been set. In most other first class matches, in most other places, Neymar would surely have been sent off for the elbow in the first half, and there is no way Fred should have got a penalty in the second. I thought Croatia gave a very good account of themselves, should have had at least a point from the game and that Brazil looked far from comfortable favourites for the competition itself. Of course my opinion is ever so slightly slanted by the fact that I stood to gain a lot more from 2-2 than I did 3-1!<br />
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I'll wait and see what odds Brazil attract after Round 1 - they're currently hovering around the 4 mark - anything under mid threes will see me laying them.<br />
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Speaking of laying... does Martin Kaymer really have a 16% chance of winning the US Open? He's had an excellent opening round and is three clear. Three clear of some excellent golfers, some of whom don't tend to come good until the latter stages of the tournament. I don't believe he does have a 16% chance, so he's a lay for me at 6.4, but the high odds require a bit of circumspection with staking as far as I'm concerned!gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-36516621288099379122014-06-09T22:28:00.001+01:002014-06-09T22:28:55.905+01:00Still alive, and kicking, just about!Nearly half of 2014 has flown past since I wished everyone a Happy New Year in my last post. I'm pleased to say that whatever the effects of the 'downturn' might have been in other areas of the economy they seem to have a minimal effect on prestige car sales! I've been flat out! That, together with a huge dose of writer's cramp and ennui has meant I've neglected my little blog.<br />
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Not only that, but I 'retired' from Cassini's FTL - and I owe him a sincere apology, as he kindly allowed me to enter (against his better judgement, I suspect!) despite my approach being totally at odds with what he and all the rest of the competitors were up to. I have been following sporadically, and tip my hat to those who finished, and tip it once more to those who finished in the green - no mean feat.<br />
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For my own trading efforts I've found myself more and more tending to trade the lower liquidity markets you find from early evening onward. As the dark evenings of winter started to give way to the spring and early summer, my return home from work seems to be getting later and later.<br />
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A by-product of this is that increasingly I've found myself getting involved in matches in the second half in-play, and I've got to say it's been a revelation. My strike rates and profitability have been much enhanced. I've also found myself tending to lay much more than I back these days, and have come up with a very effective second half approach to that end involving two markets in-play.<br />
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The end of the Premier League season once again proved both interesting and profitable. Once again I've one team to thank for a large portion of green - this time the mighty Reds :) No need to go looking for value backs all the time the Scousers are there to lay at far too cheap a price! I also laid Palace in the relegation market in the winter gloom at 1.2 something... my best individual long term win ever in terms of ROI if not hard cash.<br />
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I must say my flabber has not been entirely ghasted by the recent Sunday Times exposé of alleged dodgy dealings in FIFA. I'm sure I was far from being alone in raising a wry smile when the biggest sports tournament in the world was awarded to a tiny state with no real presence on the footballing stage and where there would be very real practical problems with staging the competition. Let's hope that as part of the fallout from this that a) the tournament ends up somewhere more appropriate and b) that FIFA as an organisation pulls out all the stops to root out the corruption and nepotism that seems to plague it. Some hope the latter, methinks.<br />
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All of which, somewhat circuitously, brings me the summer of sport that is just round corner (tennis traders will have to forgive me ... I know their summer is in full swing but the sport doesn't interest me and I always lose money when I dabble!).<br />
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This Thursday sees the start of two sporting classics. Brazil and Croatia get the World Cup underway and Justin Rose starts his defence of the US Open. Here's looking forward to trading the both!gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-53067765284451610622014-01-02T21:11:00.001+00:002014-01-02T21:11:52.525+00:00(Almost a very...) Happy New Year... and a request for some help!Happy New Year everyone, and I hope your heads are fully recovered from whatever revelry you partook of and that you are ready to face 2014 in both a personal and a trading sense.<br />
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The 'Almost a very..' qualifier in the title refers to my recent performance in Cassini's Friendly Tipster League. I've been languishing near the foundation of said league for a while now, and whilst I knew hitting correct scores sufficiently frequently to challenge for the cash was unlikely, I am, in truth, more than a bit disappointed by my dismal showing! But I came soooo close to a massive reversal of fortunes on New Year's Day when late goals robbed me of no fewer that four winners, although a VERY late equaliser turned a loser into a winner. So a net three decent profits gone in the dying embers of ten games. I suppose the moral of the story (for this is far from an isolated occurrence although it was the most costly thus far) is to lay the current score in evenly matched games in the last five minutes of the 90 wherever you can!<br />
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I wait with baited breath for the next update to the league to see if I've managed to do a Fulham and claw myself out of the relegation dogfight!<br />
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My cry for help is for some computing advice...<br />
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I'm in the process of putting together a piece of software using SQL Express and I would like to be able to record the Home and Away teams for each trade. Once I've sufficient data I hope to be able to draw some pointers from it for the future.<br />
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It seems to me pretty daft to have two separate tables with the same teams in them so I'd like ideally to reference the same table for two teams but there is no direct relationship between them other than that they are both soccer teams! I've looked in the usual places but am a little confused as how best to accomplish this, my goal is to have a trade table looking something like this:<br />
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The front end will be written in Vb hence the choice of SQL over Access. Any advice gladly received even if it's 'give it up, Gun, and stick to Excel!'. Thanks in advance.gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-50502103601287894462013-12-24T17:12:00.001+00:002013-12-24T17:12:08.829+00:00Happy Christmas everyone!The more astute of my regular readers will have noticed that my blogging posts have dried to a trickle over the past few months. I offer up no defence, other than to say that the only reason for this is a complete lack of ideas for anything fresh (or even half re-hashed, for that matter!) to write about.<br />
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I had a plan last night...<br />
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I intended to walk to the local and have a few beers with some friends whilst watching the Special One outfox old Arsene again and savour the Boys in Blue putting a few past the hapless Gooners. The journey home from work took place in a howling gale, with rain lashing the windscreen. The M2 /A2 had several places where, despite all the traffic, there was quite a lot of standing water. Suffice to say by the time I reached my home I'd decided to stay in the warm and trade the game instead.<br />
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In retrospect I wish I'd braved the weather, got soaking wet, had a bit of a headache this morning and saved myself the agony of a boring game and a reasonable trading loss! At least I'd have had a sociable, banter filled two or three hours. I appreciate the conditions were awful but I don't think I've ever seen a Premiership game between the two top London clubs where the desire to not lose the game outweighed the desire to win it by quite such a large margin. I hate nil nils!<br />
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On a brighter note, I see from my Blogger 'Dashboard' that this little area full of literary masterpieces has now attracted 200,000 plus page views! Never did I imagine that I would hit that number when I first put finger to keyboard way back when.<br />
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So thanks for persevering with me, and might I take this opportunity to wish all of you a very Merry Christmas and a Happy and Prosperous 2014.<br />
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<br />gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-61883283266825124172013-11-20T19:48:00.000+00:002013-11-20T19:48:30.488+00:00Reality TV Trading (don't adjust your screen, I haven't gone 'soft' in my old age :) )An interesting piece on this over at <a href="http://sportstradinglife.com/2013/11/how-to-trade-reality-tv-on-betfair/">Sports Trading Life</a> caught my eye the other day. It's remarkable what these blasted 'international breaks' make a footie trader read!<br />
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Anyway, what was written made perfect sense to me so I searched for, and eventually found, the markets for 'I'm a Celebrity......' My (mainly younger) colleagues I'm sure think I live under a stone somewhere when it comes to popular Kulture, and I had to smile to myself when I had to ask or google who four of the 9 'slebs' were! Anyway, I did recognise Joey Essex, the early favourite. On consulting Mrs Gun she's firmly of the opinion that he's gorgeous, and I must grudgingly admit that he does have a certain 'air' about him that undoubtedly appeals to the feminine audience. Changing tack slightly I asked who, in her opinion, is the biggest w****r in the field? The answer was shot back immediately - and on looking at the odds I don't fancy laying that person - especially as he/she (don't want Mrs Gun or self to be sued for slander!) was one of the people I'd had to look up!<br />
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To cut a long story short, I've laid Mr Essex as early favourite at odds of just under 2. If people really want to fly half way round the world to eat locusts and centipedes that's their business. If people really want to watch them, that's their business. I just hope Mr Essex blots his copy book somewhere and enables me to have a successful first (and last???) foray into Reality TV trading.<br />
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Interlude over.... proper trading resumes this weekend until the next International Break. Hopefully STL can come up with a fresh trading plan for me by then.gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-46146315547059265602013-10-29T22:57:00.000+00:002013-10-29T22:57:13.710+00:00Pivotal moments?Sometimes something happens in a sporting sense that proves to be a pivotal moment in turning fortunes. I can't help wondering whether Manchester City's gift of a late 2-1 victory to Chelsea on Sunday afternoon might prove to be such a moment. The match stats saw City having the edge in possession, but some dogged chasing of a seemingly lost cause by Torres paid off. Doubtless that goal sent his, and the team's, confidence soaring. Following that result up with a comprehensive 0-2 win at the Emirates tonight has sent the Blues to favourites in the Winner's market on Betfair, for now, at least!<div>
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At the other end of the table, under the calm and steady influence of Gus Poyet, Sunderland had a much needed and confidence boosting 2-1 win over their North East rivals, Newcastle. I've little doubt that the Black Cats fight for survival will be harder relatively than Chelsea's fight for glory, but at 1.9 in the relegation market I have taken them on for small stakes.</div>
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Whether these were two pivotal moments or two blips remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be surprised if both turned out more of the former than the latter.</div>
gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-23082279363785265182013-10-21T22:15:00.001+01:002013-10-21T22:15:24.657+01:00OUCH!It was never going to be easy taking on fellow traders, 'amateur' and 'professional' alike, in the FTL as the singleton betting correct scores over 1x2 value bets. I'm trying to hit one from seventeen as opposed to one from three, although I do give myself 3 attempts at it. I'm not bleating, you understand! It's just that, as predicted, this weekend I suffered the ignominy of a complete, absolute wipe-out. Zero from 10. Nought percent. Feck all. I now await the 100% week to put things straight!<br />
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With nine games already down my hopes rested on the Torino v Inter match in Serie A last night. I traded that one live and was in buoyant spirits as the game kicked off. The game was a few seconds old when the 'suspended' sign flashed across my screen - but it wasn't a goal. No, Inter somehow contrived to have a player sent off with almost the entire game left to play. In the ensuing chaos in the Correct Score market I was able to get small backs matched at high odds on 2-2 and 3-3 - the market having effectively written Inter off.<br />
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They survived a missed penalty before going a goal down at about twenty minutes. They equalised just before half time, before going 2-1 down. That was followed by 2-2, 2-3 and then a last gasp Torino goal made it 3-3 almost at the bell!<br />
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In summary, a trade that looked as good as over in the first twenty minutes turned into one of the most exciting, and profitable, in-play trades that I've enjoyed for a long time.<br />
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Unfortunately, I am still going to take a bit of a kicking when Cassini updates the table.gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-56988364814599555192013-09-25T23:02:00.001+01:002013-09-25T23:02:18.959+01:00Low liability laying part 2Last night: Watford 2 Norwich 0 - laid Watford at 1.14, 2-2 full time, Norwich went on to win 2-3 in Extra Time.<br />
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Tonight: Bologna 3 AC Milan 1 - laid Bologna twice (once at 2-1, but went in a bit deeper at 3-1). Milan pulled it back to 3-3.<br />
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Elche v Real Madrid: Laid U2.5 goals at 50 mins at 1.33. RM take a one goal lead. Laid them in Match Odds at 1.18. 92 minutes Elche equalised. Greened Match Odds, but the 2.5 didn't afford an opportunity. Laid the draw for a £25 liability at 1.07. Madrid get, and score, a 95th minute penalty - the only time in my memory that I have anything good or positive to say about the 'winker' ;)<br />
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Total liability for these trades less than £150. Total profit over £700. That's why I like low liability laying!gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-46786047462033686262013-09-09T12:34:00.000+01:002013-09-09T12:34:11.632+01:00Drive for show...putt for doughAll golfers will, I'm sure, have heard that hoary old chestnut that succinctly highlights the fact that success (for Tiger Woods or an occasional hacker like me) in golf occurs at the business end of the hole, not the 300 yard 'skinner' off the tee. A decent tee shot certainly helps, but low scores in golf emanate from your ability around the green.<br />
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This was brought into my mind when I looked at the latest FTL positions over at<a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/dastardly-doubles.html"> Green Allover</a>. We are five weeks into the season - where does the time go?? - and a pattern is starting to take shape now. What I found interesting is that the strike rates of the players in the top half of the table are quite close yet the returns vary considerably. So there are some good ball strikers who might want to consider spending some time on the putting green! For some the numbers are as yet small, so it will be interesting to have another look in a month or so when the figures will have more meaning.<br />
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For my own selections, I have to say I'm massively encouraged as a result of the last couple of weeks. I thought I might struggle to hit enough scores to make headway, especially as Cassini is calculating the positions on a point p/l basis. I submit 10 selections per week, risking a total of ten points per selection. I strongly suspect that there will be at least one week where I suffer a complete wipeout which would represent a 100 point loss! Champions League spot to relegation in one fell swoop is always just around the corner! On the other hand I might, just might, hit a 100% S/R one week. Watch this space.gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-55293114923466299192013-08-27T23:07:00.002+01:002013-08-27T23:07:20.779+01:00Low liability layingAn excellent night for those people out there who like to lay Liverpool. Unfortunately I'm otherwise engaged on Tuesday evenings and rushed out at half time without doing so, but yet again the 'cash cow' of the last two seasons proved worthy of that moniker again.<br />
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I did trade the Any Unquoted in the game three times. I'm personally rarely able to resist laying it in almost any game where it's under 3 at the start of the match, and duly did so. The intention was to take the green after 10-15 minutes and recycle it as the goals pinged in. As sometimes happens when you take that course, the first goal pinged in in short time. Whilst unfortunate in terms of my already set trade, it did have the effect of pushing the price of AU down to under 1.7. Think about what that means.....with 86 minutes plus injury time left to play the market believed that in 100 games, 59 of them would end with a four goal or more score from either or both teams. I don't know the stats and haven't the means (or inclination) to dig them out but my intuition tells me that it's bollox to put it bluntly! In this case it's clearly a reflection of the general consensus of opinion being that Liverpool would go on and thump County. Having relaid at double my original stake I was able in fairly short order to come out with a small green before the second goal, at which point the odds dropped to the mid 1.2's. So I was able to recycle the same money again, and that was all I ended up doing in the game.<br />
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The main point though, is that it looks as if some £70k was matched on Liverpool at 1.01. The full time score was 2-2. If your bank can stand it, there's little downside to laying £100, £1000 or even £10000 at those odds. Sure there will be many more losers than winners...but these things do happen. Based on my experience there are two top-flight English teams that it happens to more than most, the aforementioned and Arsenal. I'll always lay both of them at 2 or more goal leads.gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-58474994937995000532013-08-20T15:22:00.002+01:002013-08-20T15:22:47.022+01:00How times have changedWhilst City were 'playing' with Newcastle last night, comparisons were drawn with the Leeds team of the 1970's who mercilessly toyed with a team (I think it was WBA but my memory is hazy - I stand to be corrected) playing a sort of exhibition match to the delight of the crowd. One thing led another via google as often happens, and I found myself reading about the 1970 FA Cup Final in 1970. <div>
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That is a day I remember fondly, as at the tender age of eight, I sat with my Uncle Arthur watching the game and became a Chelsea supporter. To say I remember the game in detail would be to over egg the sauce a bit, but the account I read last night suggested it to have been a bruising encounter, and a very bad tempered one to boot. That match ended 2-2 when Ian Hutchinson, of the windmill long throw fame, netted in the final moments of the game.</div>
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The replay was played at Old Trafford and, if anything, was a more bruising encounter than the first had been. Remember, this is the era when players rejoiced in nicknames like Ron 'Chopper' Harris, Norman 'Bites yer legs' Hunter and 'Battling' Billy Bremner. Those names were genuinely descriptive of the way the game was played back then.</div>
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Which brings me to the title...according to an article on SkySports.com, retired referee David Elleray reviewed the game some 30 years later and revealed that he would have issued no fewer than 6 Red Cards and a staggering 20 Yellows. There was just the one 'booking' in the whole match!</div>
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Of course, the Blues won the replay thanks to a Dave Webb extra time header. Happy days :)</div>
gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-63944172702446052842013-08-19T17:46:00.001+01:002013-08-19T17:46:50.590+01:00The meaning of lifeOne of the things I like best about the Betting / Trading 'blogosphere' is that it sometimes throws up some fascinating debates, not all of which are directly related to the subject. There is one such debate brewing at the moment about life, wealth, work and happiness / fulfilment / pyschological well-being call it what you will. Anyway, I thought I'd put my tuppenceworth into the mix.<br />
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To set the background for those who wonder what the old fool's rambling on about now, look at <a href="http://tradingaprofit.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/the-4-hour-work-week.html">Caan Berry's</a> piece, and Steve's comment in response to it and then pop over to <a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/work.html">Green All Over</a> to see Cassini's usual non-combative everyone's entitled to an opinion stance on the subject.<br />
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I think both Caan and Cassini are right in different ways. It<i> is</i> rich, if you interpret that term in a holistic sense rather than a straight financial sense, to be your own boss. If you can earn a living working a few hours a day, have no-one to answer to but your other half (if applicable) and don't see the point in working harder to earn more as you don't see the point, I think that's a fortunate position to be in. Likewise if you are so contented in your career, as seems to be the case with Cassini, that the work / life boundary fades to an indistinct line then I also think that's a fortunate position to be in.<br />
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I generally speaking really enjoy what I do to earn a crust. There are apsects that I don't enjoy, although they are few in number and none engender a 'hatred' of the task - more of a 'needs must so let's just get it over and done with' response. The truth is though, that I sell cars because I was not good enough at playing either football or golf to make a career out of what I truly enjoy (on, in the case of football, used to enjoy) doing most!<br />
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For most people reading this post and the others mentioned I suspect that work is a necessity to enable them to live. I also suspect that, given the choice / chance most would like to quit the 'rat race' and control their own destiny. It is a little too simplistic, in my view, to say that if you dislike your job that much you just need to go and find something that you do enjoy.<br />
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I also think that people of my parents' generation and my generation have had / are having a far easier time than people of my sons' generation are likely to have. I'd like that not to be the case, but suspect it will prove so.<br />
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One trader I know gave up the rat race to trade full time. As far as I know he was making a good go at it, but then got invited back into the corporate world. After a bit of internal turmoil the appeal and challenge offered by the greasy pole proved too much to pass on and back he went. He stopped blogging regularly then as well, which is a shame. He knows who he is ;-).<br />
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Another trader of my acquaintance had been full time for over four years, and again, as far as I know earnt well enough from it. He now works with people who need help in a couple of areas of life truly central to their general well being. When I asked him why he quit full time trading and whether he was enjoying his new role his response was interesting. It seems that Betfair and their attitude to their customers was the central reason for him quitting... i.e. the Premium Charge among other things. He also said that in his new role he feels completely fulfilled, something that trading full time had not achieved for him. I don't know how much he's making now, but suspect he's taken a drop in income in return for what he sees as an improvement in his quality of life.<br />
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Cassini says that one definition of richness is when one's income from investment exceeds expenses. I'll add a definition I've heard: '<i>true wealth has been attained when the interest on your <u>interest</u> exceeds expenses</i>'. I honestly doubt that many people reading these words fall into either camp. I know I don't. But on balance I'm inclined to side with the view that wealth or richness are all relative terms, and that, 'wishy washy' or not, I'll take a good family and close circle of good friends over the mansion and the Ferrari. All day, every day!<br />
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<br />gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-14147228378855271912013-08-19T13:43:00.001+01:002013-08-19T13:43:22.157+01:00An opportunity or an aberration?Another 'so close and yet so far' week in the FTL. Across the major European Leagues the scores I'm after (1-1, 1-2 and 2-1) account for about 23-25% of results and at the moment, after filtering, I'm stuck at an irritatingly low strike rate of 20%. I'm confident that over time, especially as the season settles into some kind of rhythm that this will pick up. How both Birmingham and Derby contrived to fail to find an equaliser is beyond me, to be honest!<br />
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Take a look at the screenshot...<br />
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I'm wondering if I've stumbled across something here... the highlighted results would have seen the Any Unquoted pay out. I hadn't logged the prices, but with the possible exception of the Swansea v Man U game, I doubt it would have been below 12 in any of those matches. </div>
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So there we have it... spend hours sifting through the in-play coupons looking for Scatter Gun games... and then... in a blanket fashion, lump on Any Unquoted!</div>
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gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-83381660786027454932013-08-12T00:13:00.001+01:002013-08-12T00:13:22.772+01:00An inauspicious start!But let's draw some positives from it! Firstly, the dreaded 0-0 was avoided in all ten games. Harder to dodge, however, were some, frankly, freakish results.<br />
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Ross County losing at home to Partick, a stunning 6-1 win for Hertha over Eintracht were not in my tealeaves on Saturday morning. Sunday got even more extreme, with (hopefully temporarily) homeless Coventry City running out 5-4 winners in a thrilling match against Bristol City played in Northampton. That actually worked out OK, as I laid Coventry at 0-3. I thought my chance of a big win had gone when City scored the equaliser only for Coventry to score a fourth before my hedging bet was matced. I needn't have worried as Bristol did fight back, allowing for a hedge and then a cheeky LTD - which also came in at 5-4. The 3-3 between Schalke and Hamburg also provided some interesting and profitable trading.<br />
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The results would have been a lot more palatable had Zwolle not scored an injury time third goal that turned a 1-2 into a losing 1-3. So, it's all their fault! The sad fact remains, however, that the Scatter (or spray!) Gun results are running at a 32% negative ROI after week one....as they said in a song once upon a time, 'the only way is up'gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-60712470829213413122013-08-10T01:05:00.000+01:002013-08-10T01:05:52.224+01:00Spray guns at the ready!I'm pleased to say that <a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.co.uk/">Cassini</a> has allowed me to take part in his famous Friendly Tipster League in the forthcoming season. My entries will be unusual in that they are Correct Score picks, rather than the match picks the other protagonists will be making (although having said that one of Cassini's own entries is based on the O2.5 market). I will be interested to see how my selections compare with the 1x2 entries - predictably I'm submitting 'Scatter Gun' scores of 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1. I'm grateful to Cassini for allowing an entry like this, as the available odds in this market are not recorded in his preferred data source (www.football-data.co.uk - an excellent site, if it's new to you). We've therefore agreed a fixed odds system for recording this, and the odds agreed are on the low side for most of these games.<br />
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I shan't do this every week but I thought you might be interested to see my selections for this coming weekend.<br />
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The full-time results of the matches concerned will determine the outcome of my entry, but in reality of course I would actively trade the games in-play. I would ordinarily put the 2-2 in the mix at the right odds, but with a view to using the leverage that goals create on that score to mitigate liabilities elsewhere. Including 2-2 in these selections would, I'm sure, weaken the return.<br />
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In case you're wondering if I've renamed the trade, fear not! Cassini referred to it as the 'spray gun or whatever he calls it...' - hence the post title :-)gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-62145599830038995582013-08-02T22:07:00.002+01:002013-08-02T22:14:57.276+01:00The Cash Dispenser is open again I refer, of course, to my regular Friday night forays into Ligue 2. The screenshot below doesn't tell the whole story by any means as some astute trading in the higher scoring games offset the loss on Arles (which, in their infinite wisdom, Betfair suspended from the fist goal after a couple of minutes for the whole of the rest of the match). The Niort game didn't go in play, and one thing that I noticed last season is that the one game they don't put in play per week (why not, ffs?) seems to usually hit the spot. My intention going forward is to put a half stakes 'set and forget' on the game not going in-play. A loss on the Metz game was averted by a lay of 0-0 at 1.3 and a last minute goal. I know some will say 'that looks like chasing' but in my defence I was green across all seven in-play goals long before I placed that lay, and would do it again next week if the situation arose.<br />
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To cap an already more than acceptable night's 'work' off - Braga have just this second completed yet another fightback from 2 goals down. 'Appy days!gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-47668452502663071912013-07-31T11:51:00.001+01:002013-07-31T11:51:33.006+01:00Stick or twist?Reno posed a question recently about how to handle the 'wrong' scores in a Scatter Gun trade:<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; text-align: justify;">Hi</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; text-align: justify;">Interesting concept and I've been trying this at small stakes for a few days. When the score-line of 1-1 is reached, hallelujah.. the money comes in. But what do you do when 2-0 or 0-2 is reached? Cashing out at this score leaves you -6p on average, but if it gets to 3-0 or 0-3, you loose all your stakes. So I was wondering whether you trade when 1-0 or 2-0 is reached (or 0-1 and 0-2) </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; text-align: justify;">Thanks! Reno</span></blockquote>
The key to answering this, in my opinion, lies in the very first sentence Reno writes. Use small stakes. As simple as that, really! By small stakes I mean small relative to your bank, of course. I am always prepared to lose my entire stake if an SG trade goes completely wrong. That's not to say that I never take 'corrective action' - more that I'm quite prepared not to.<br />
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I don't see any point, personally, in trading out at 2-0 or 0-2. Many of those games, even if they don't end 1-2 or 2-1 will see one of those scores at some point. If a team scores a third, take it on the chin and move on.<br />
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The trade works best the later in the game that goals come. If there is an early goal, especially to the favourite, you might consider backing 3-0 or 0-3. That way, if they score the second goal you can probably scratch the trade by laying off 2-1/1-2 and 3-0 / 0-3.<br />
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Another 'nightmare' scenario is a flurry of early goals - I was trading the four Brazillian games last night and the Joinville v Boa match was 1-1 after five minutes and 2-2 by half time! In that situation I scrambled out for a small red at 1-1! Not much else to be done really.<br />
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I don't think you can be too 'mechanical' with correct score trading. The SG is a pretty resilient trade, and my records show it to be nicely profitable <i>over the long term</i>. If you get out of too many trades too early you are, in my opinion, walking away from profitability and not giving the trade a chance to work.<br />
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The bigger question, and the most difficult to call, is what to do at 1-1? Assuming this score occurs in the second half you, as the trader, have to decide how to go forward. You could just hedge for a nice profit by greening up all three scores. You might green just the 1-1 to leave maybe a small loss there and chunky wins on the other two. you might remove some or your total liability by laying 1-1 to some degree. The only thing I would say is that once you've chosen a particular course of action just do it, and don't look back over your shoulder and kick yourself if you make the wrong call!gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-53742688192344963532013-07-29T23:27:00.001+01:002013-07-29T23:40:21.296+01:00In-Play stats and their place in a trader's arsenalI wonder what peoples' views are on this subject? The reason for my post was a discussion in the Trading Football (disclosed affiliation before anyone asks :) ) chatroom tonight about the subject. <br />
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It was clear that for some people the absence of Shots on Target (SOT) is a valid reason for staying out (or maybe for getting out ) of a football trade. Now, I'm nothing if not democratic, and each to his own. But, I've some doubts, and therefore, some questions....<br />
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I have two main issues: a) definition and b) averages<br />
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What is a SOT? Who defines it? How accurate is the assessment in-play? Is there a universally accepted standard? If we say a SOT is a shot (or header???) that either results in a goal or is saved / blocked then I suppose that's OK as a standard. What about a shot that comes off the post or the bar? Or one that is millimetres out? Were they on target, or were they just 'shots'? What about deflections? See my point?<br />
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I can live with all of that, but what I don't get is how the averages work. Below is a table showing SOT and goals in the Premier League last season. From this we can see that Manchester United, the Champions, have the lowest SOT:Goal Ratio needing an average of just 3.48 SOT to score a goal. The 20th ranked team, perhaps similarly unsurprisingly, were QPR (relegated) who needed over 8 SOT per goal. We can also probably conclude that Reading are an efficient scoring machine, ranked second only to Utd and needing only 4.16 SOT to score. The fact that they also were relegated suggests they just need to up their shooting rate! Is Premier League soccer that simple, I wonder?<br />
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Be all that as it may, we can see that on average a Premier League side needs 5 SOT to score a goal. So in theory a game with 10 SOT should, on average, produce 2 goals.<br />
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I've said previously that maths isn't my strong point. Statistics are even more of a Dark Art to me. But, and this is the crux of what I don't get, how do those who rely on in-play stats allow for previous and forthcoming games and goals? If that sounds double dutch I'll try to explain what I mean.<br />
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August 17th 2013 marks the start of the new season for the Premier League. Team A need 5 SOT per goal and they are playing Team B who need 6.5 SOT per goal. Let's assume the game results in a 0-0 bore draw, Team A having had 5 SOT and Team B 7.<br />
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When those two teams kick off in their second match, do we count SOT from the first shrill of the man in black's whistle, or from the 5 and 7 figures above? By the same token, should we have taken into account the SOT since the respective last goals scored by both teams last season in our in-play stats for the 17/8/13 game?<br />
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Even a mathematical dunce like me can accept there's a causal relationship between SOT and goals. In a golfing situation, if my putt doesn't reach the hole, it ain't going down! But until someone can explain to me (in a way that I can understand) how these stats can be <i>usefully</i> employed in-play I'm going to carry on not worrying about them!<br />
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P.S. The SOT / Goal data comes courtesy of www.football-data.co.uk . Their statistical information is drawn from a number of sources - a site well worth a visit if, like me, you're stats mad ;)gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-48215573697960315122013-07-28T22:30:00.002+01:002013-07-28T22:30:39.635+01:00One 'Gotcha' that didn't get me!Not through any particular skill of mine, before you start wondering!<br />
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I put a dutched trade together on the Canadian Open, and one of those I backed was Hunter Mahan. I did so on the back of his impressive play in The Open, and by the close of play on the second day he had a good lead. In fact, his lead was so good that he was available to lay at 2.6, which enabled me to take a useful £32 green screen into the final two rounds.<br />
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I got in from work on Saturday night, intending to trade the tournament in play, and Hunter was in my sights as a potential lay to back trade. I scanned the market and couldn't see him anywhere near the top. Eventually I spied him right down at the bottom trading at 1000!<br />
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Had he swallowed a putter? Been assaulted by a grizzly bear? Had the Mounties 'Got their man'? No - his wife had gone into labour and he'd hauled himself off the golf course to be present at her bedside!<br />
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I've got to feel sorry for any more diligent golf traders than I. Those people put the hours in looking at form, greens in regulation, driving accuracy and analyse a player's strengths and weaknesses relative to the type and layout of the course being played.<br />
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I just hope they also knew his wife was pregnant and was about to drop!gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-45720272527192536422013-07-18T02:24:00.003+01:002013-07-18T02:24:39.521+01:00The Scatter Gun at its bestI started trading Latin American football primarily because it fits in with my work commitments. I continue trading it now because it is also so consistently profitable for me. Look at the wonders of a last minute 2-2 in the cup tie between Union La Colera and Universidad de Catolica..<br />
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gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-26258965275451490402013-07-09T23:53:00.001+01:002013-07-09T23:53:35.997+01:00Win sum, lose someI was drawn to a comment that Ian Erskine made in relation to a recent debate over at <a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/seminars-and-pareto.html">Cassini's</a> place relating to the trading mindset. Describing the first of his round of trading training workshops he said the following:<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #6131bd; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 14.75px;">The overwhelming response in the room is exactly as Cassini states - negative. Even with the winner the general view was one of hoping to win. I don't hope I win, I expect to win and over time know I will win.</span></blockquote>
The winner referred to is the one person among the 18 present who was significantly ahead overall in his trading. That in itself tells a story, but what I found interesting was the main thrust of the man's own thinking: '....I don't <i>hope</i> I win, I <i>expect</i> to win and over time <i>know</i> that I <i><b>will</b></i> win.' (My emphasis).<br />
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I don't know about you, but I think that a man who's netted the equivalent of a reasonable lottery windfall in seven years of trading is probably worth listening to.<br />
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Back in the mists of time I started writing this blog to try to help with my discipline. I knew what to do, but somehow couldn't resist straying from the path of righteousness. I'm no saint today, but am an awful lot better, partly through experience and partly from taking on board what others have said as well. Slowly but surely I've learnt when to take a loss and when to let a winner run. Of course, I don't always get it right, and occasionally still drop an almighty great clanger. But by and large I've got better, my bank is steadily growing and I do now <i>expect</i> to win overall. And I do...overall.<br />
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What interested me when I read Ian's piece was that most of the time when the 'trader's mindset' is discussed it focuses on the mechanics of trading. The message he puts across is much much more to do with thinking of success rather than trying to limit failure. A key difference.<br />
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<br />gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.com0