An upside down market if ever there was one!

Betfair markets are normally noted for their efficiency and accuracy. Eddie, over at A Football Trader's Path, posted some stats that suggested that the early group games in the Euros would likely be low scoring games with both sides trying hard not to lose rather than trying to win. I concurred with that assessment, even commenting that I wouldn't be laying the 0-0 in the curtain raiser! Listening to the second half of the Poland v Greece game in the car on the way home from work it certainly did not appear to be the dire affair that many had predicted, and maybe it was this that caused me to look at the Russian game in a slightly different light.

Looking at the teamsheets and the quality of some of the players in both teams caused me to question how the market had settled on 0-0 at 7.6 pre match, with Any Unquoted at (from memory) nearly 20. Even 2-2 was mid twenties pre kick off.

Regular readers will know that I like laying at odds on usually, but to me the 0-0 price was a real value lay. I didn't go mad, but did lay it at 7 a few minutes in. Typically, and especially with the benefit of the most accurate vision available to man (20/20 hindsight), I completely ignored the rather bloated AU price. But I did manage a lovely green on the game.

Sometimes the real value in football trading lies in going against the crowd. I'm not suggesting doing this for the sake of it - but if you look as I did at the teams and apply a bit of thought from your knowledge of the sport you can sometimes hit real paydirt.

Let's hope such opportunities arise more during what I think and hope will be a compelling tournament.

Doh!

Someone has just had a value bet at my expense!

Fat fingered trading meant I offered £100 to back Any Unquoted in the upcoming Stjarnen game at even money instead of offering to lay. Needless to say money that wasn't there suddenly swopped and took it before I could cancel the bloody thing!

I'm sitting here now wondering whether to take a substantial pill before a ball is kicked or let the bloody thing ride in the expectation of goals....

How does this work, and can i get some of it, please?

A nice, quiet Friday afternoon friendly international between Czech Republic and Hungary. The U2.5 is suspended for what turned out to be an equalising goal for the Czechs. Below is a screenshot of the market:

The money waiting to be matched has gone from the square root of sweet Felicity Arkwright to over £100 k on both sides of the market! I can't get matched during suspensions, but you could watch the money piling in....

I'm assuming this can only be for one of three reasons. Firstly, people cleverer than I have found a backdoor to enable them to match bets during suspensions. Secondly the money belongs to either Betfair or clients far more important than me. Thirdly, Evo is having hallucinations.

I suspect I know which it is, but if anyone can shed any light it would be interesting to hear!