Battered and bruised, possibly even steamrollered, he smiled, picked himself up....

...and returned to the drawing board!

When confronted by two very convincing arguments (HERE and HERE) showing why one of the key 'platforms' of my particular trading style is fundamentally flawed it is either a very stupid or extremely stubborn man who doesn't re-evaluate what he's doing. I am neither (but please don't try to tell Mrs Gun that!).

At the risk of sounding somewhat 'aftertime-ish' I must admit that it the recesses of my mind I knew there was something wrong, but couldn't pin point it. Yes, I'm ahead after trading football for three / four years or however long it is now, but in my heart I've always known that I'm not as ahead as I should be for the vast amount of hours I've put in - progress has been slow.

I've always attributed this to discipline, or more accurately to the lack thereof. That is, and, I fear, always will be, a major shortcoming of mine (I can't even keep those blasted spreadsheets  updated properly!). As I don't know of a free or low cost way of curing it, I've got to work with it and try my best to control it. But if I accept the premise that some of my trading decisions are akin to picking pennies up from in front of an irate steamroller then I might be able to overcome the discipline issue by working smarter not harder.

 I trade as a hobby, any money made is welcome but not significant to my lifestyle (or it isn't at the moment, I should say). As such I'm not prepared to go digging for loads of stats, opinions, 'formbooks' etc. If that sounds lazy or haphazard I wouldn't argue. I have tried spreadsheets using various elo ratings and other esoteric things that google searches throw up with gay abandon. I suppose my approach could best be described as intuitive - I rely a lot on 'gut instinct' - sometimes right, sometimes wrong. But because trading in play allows the opportunity to adjust a flawed initial judgement on the fly you can often profit or curtail losses by being almost right or not quite wrong.

I am also not prepared to learn other sports. My forays into trading the nags have almost without exception resulted in losses, swearing and chasing. Tennis, although I know loads of people make loads of money from it, bores me to tears, as, I'm afraid, do all sports spawned across the pond (no offence to any American readers :-)). Soccer  is what I want to do.

So, how do I go about uncovering this value in soccer trading?

The bit about all this that I really don't get is this...assuming I did all the research and concluded that the true odds of a given event occurring were 2.8 at a given time, and it was available to back at 2.9 I've identified a value back.... in my opinion. No matter how strong my opinion is, and how robust the analysis and thinking behind it might be... in order for my value back to be taken.... someone else must see my price as a value lay. Maybe it's some muppet dodging steamrollers... but in his or her opinion my stake is there for the taking at a good price.

Maybe, just maybe, if I can get my head around that one I'll start progressing.

Thanks for all the input and constructive dissection of my words...it's been interesting and thought provoking.

For those that wondered, being in a minority of one is not as comfortable a place as my closing remark on yesterday's post implied it might be!

The vexing question of 'Value' in trading.

I think most people reading this or any other trading / betting blog will have a basic understanding of the concept of 'value' in relation to straight forward betting. You are looking to get involved in a bet when the odds on offer are better than your estimation of the chance of success for that outcome. Getting 2.1 on 'Heads' in the coin toss is the obvious, if unlikely, example. Mathematically of course it's impossible to argue against this... if you accept that you will likely lose more times than you will win then it is apparent that the only way to make money is to make more than you 'should' on your winners and lose less than you 'should' on your losers. The ability to analyse form, trends and markets is a must, of course, and (true) 'inside information' could prove invaluable.

Does this same definition apply to trading the sports markets? I really, honestly, am not sure.

The basic premise above still makes perfect sense in a trading environment - if you can secure odds which are better than the true odds on an outcome you will make more long term. What prompted me to pen this little missive is this paragraph in The Sultan's interview with Cassini on Centre Court Trading:

When learning, what did you find the hardest aspect of trading to crack?

The hardest part of trading is identifying the entry and exit points. Anyone can back the unders in a football match, wait five minutes for the price to drop a few ticks, and lock in a profit, but was the entry point value? Was the exit point value? A lot of people consider this to be trading, but to me, without a valid reason to enter or exit a market, it’s gambling. The predictability of price movements is the big problem with trading football in my opinion. The scarcity of goals means that prices trend in a very predictable way, and if the opening price was correct, you are unlikely to find value during the game. If the opening price wasn’t correct, then my approach is to take the value bet and let it run.

Many readers probably do as I do and scalp the unders markets in a football match. Why do we do this? One reason, as Cassini states above, is because the price movements are so predictable. All the time there is no goal, unders will reduce in price. So if I back £100 at 2, lay at 1.98, back at 1.98, lay at 1.96... recycling that same £100 and adding to it every time there is no goal, does it really matter if my entry and exit points are 'value' according to the traditional definition. I've struggled with this one - and I don't think it does!

The reason I enter this market is usually to cover another trade in the same match where I am slightly more 'value conscious'. It might not be a classical approach but if I intend to stake say £50 on a correct score trade and I can scalp a £40 green on both sides of the overs / unders in the same match then in my mind a) that's a valid reason to enter and exit that market and b) it enables me to view the entire match under one overall 'umbrella'. The gamble involved, of course, is that a goal might be scored after a back has been matched and before the lay has been matched. But that is a calculated gamble in my opinion and, yes, of course I've been caught! Many times! But I'm still 'in the game' and slowly but surely edging forward.... this time next year, Rodney!

I'd be interested in what people think and am quite happy to be in a minority of one :-)

Is it just me that doesn't understand UEFA sometimes?

Wayne Rooney has had his three match ban 'modified' to a two match ban and a sort of 'suspended sentence' for the third match. This enables him to participate, if selected, in the final group match against Ukraine at the Euros next year. The offence, you will doubtless recall, was a petulant kick aimed at (and connecting with!) a hapless Montenegran defender in the recent qualifier. Not a mistimed tackle or a professional foul, but a deliberate hack. Some might argue that Rooney was frustrated. So what? Society would cease to function at all if any Tom, Dick or Wayne were to go round booting people out of frustration!

Last night, at the conclusion of Manchester United's dire defeat at the hands of Basel and their failure to qualify for the knock out stages of the Champions League, there he was right in the referee's face, yet again. I don't know why Wayne thought the referee was responsible for United's demise. Unless you know different I don't think it was the ref who missed an open goal from 6 or 7 feet! He does seem incapable of knowing when to stop.

I've nothing against the man, and admire his talents when they are applied in the right direction. But I can't help wondering if a player with less 'stature' (per chance with less financial 'pull'?) would have got such leniency.

From a trading perspective, I'm sure my old mate Lamb must be smiling inwardly at the news. I know he's been steadily backing England for the Euros and I'm sure the news will have caused England's price to come in a bit more.