The mighty Any Unquoted - in all its glory!

All of the in-play football markets that I can think of, without exception, respond to two things: goals and time decay. There are also marked interactions between various markets - especially between the Correct Score market and the goals markets - in many ways the Correct Score market drives the odds in most of the other markets - after all it reflects more accurately than the others the trend of the match. Differing liquidity in some of these markets mean it is sometimes possible to get a sort of arbitrage or no-lose bet by backing in one market and laying in another. As traders, rather than gamblers, our aim is to exploit price movements in markets rather than to 'pick a winner'.

In my opinion one of the most interesting scorelines in the Correct Score market is the Any Unquoted (AU)- ie any result where one or both teams score 4 or more goals. In certain matches there is a Correct Score 2 market, with an Any Unquoted scoreline. This is  a completely different animal, and the subject for another day.

The AU can be used and traded in many different ways, and this little discourse will only cover some of its uses - I'd be glad to receive comments on other areas and thoughts regarding this scoreline.

Firstly, let's look at two obvious, but simple, possibilities from the start of the match

BACK FROM START

One thing I've noticed is that in some leagues, Spain for example, there are quite a lot of early goals. A goal in the first twenty minutes or so will see AU half in price - so back at 12 say, lay at 6 after an early goal. Two early goals and it will nearly half again! This is a bit of a punt, but you can red up quite cheaply if no goals are scored.

LAY FROM START

AU is one scoreline that drifts quite quickly if no goals are scored. If you have a sufficiently large bank, one tactic I sometimes use is to dutch scores from 0-0 to 1-2 2-1 for say £20 and at the same time lay AU for £20 - effectively giving a free bet on those other scorelines. Depending on how the game goes you might not choose to green the AU - but I'd be looking to get about 1/2 my stakes on the other scores covered if possible.

The better possibilities offered by this scoreline, in my opinion, come just after a goal has  been scored, especially if there is an early goal or two...

BACK AT HALF TIME

Fantastic odds can be available on AU at half time if there are no, or 1 goal, but you need to look at the U/O 3.5 and 4.5 goals markets to establish which is more likely to provide the movement you seek in the event of a goal. However, backing AU at half time can form a valuable part of a broader Correct Score strategy - you can buy considerable 'leverage' at low cost this way.

LAY AFTER A GOAL

The AU price drops like a stone after a goal is scored... the market tends to over react. I'm talking about 1-0 or 2-0 - 3-0/3-1 etc needs a bit more consideration...Allow the market to settle for a couple of minutes and lay AU for a liability that is comfortable for you - don't overstretch yourself or you'll pressure yourself into acting too early out of fear. How long you stay in is a matter of judgement and nerve! Time remaining, whether or not you are watching the game, and pre-match likely result analysis will all play a part in helping you decide. One thing I would say is that a lot of games go off at a hectic pace with an early flurry of goals and then settle into a  relatively predictable slower pace - and the AU will slowly start to drift outwards, picking up speed as time decays.

LAY AT 3 GOALS

At a casual glance this might seem like financial suicide! But, stop for a second or two and consider the situation. One team has scored three goals, or it might even be 3-3! In the first instance my belief is that there is a degree of a 'job done' mentality that pervades the game. One team is reasonably confident it has won, the other reasonably confident that it has lost. Sometimes a spirited fightback begins, and the losing side nick a goal or maybe two back - suddenly our three goal heroes have the choice of defending their now diminishing lead, or trying to extend it. This is not a trade I would stay in for long - depending on timing of the third goal - but liability is usually low.

At 3-3 obviously laying AU is the same as backing No Next Goal - so you might want to check the odds there first! Again you'll need to ask yourself if the 'job done' is the prevalent attitude, or whether one team or the other is going hell for leather to win the game - and don't stay in for too long - set a target price and get out!

USE AU AS INSURANCE

A while ago lots of people were backing Under 2.5 goals and covering the bet in the Goal Time Market - i.e. looking to make enough from the falling U2.5 odds to cover the bet on, usually, a goal in the first ten minutes. I preferred, and still do this from time to time, to back AU as insurance. Let's say U2.5 is at 2 and AU at 10 at kick off - you back £100 on U2.5 and £11 on AU - i.e a cover for your £100 unders bet. At 20 minutes you can probably green the U2.5 at about 1.6, but AU might only be at 20 - green on Unders £25, red on AU £5.... If a goal goes in at say 11 minutes you could probably red Unders for a loss of £32 or so and green your AU bet for about £22 - giving a guaranteed loss of £7. Alternatively, letting the bet run the AU price will rise as the U2.5 price falls again - the main danger here being that an equaliser is scored rather than a second goal for the leading team.

Assuming you take the green on U2.5 at 20 minutes my inclination would be to let the AU bet run for a while...after all you'd be in a no lose situation - and a couple of goals before about 60 minutes would at worst enable you to lay AU at  a price similar to its starting point...

CONCLUSION

Hopefully this will give those of you newish to trading soccer a taster for the delights of trading the Any Unquoted. More seasoned campaigners will, I'm sure, have their own views on this. It would be interesting to hear them!

My firm opinion is that this scoreline has a multitude of potential uses, and it is useful in so many ways because of the initial over-reaction to a goal that occurs - if you decide to dip your toes into AU trading tread carefully and you should be OK!!

Normally the words United and Manchester don't sit well with me...

.... but not tonight! Returning home late from work I noticed the FA Cup game between Rochdale and FC United of Manchester was 0-0 with approaching half an hour gone. Confidently expecting Rochdale to walk this one I laid 0-0 in the HT score market at evens. The lay paid, but, to my surprise, it was United who scored first and went into the break with an unexpected lead. Shortly into the second half they got a second! At this point, in my opinion, they were prime lay material - so I laid them for £50. Within a couple of minutes Rochdale got a goal back to make it 1-2. I could have greened then for £20 but my instincts were telling me to hold fire...I also toyed with laying 1-2 but at 5.4 thought it a bit too high.

The minutes ticked by, and slowly my £20 green was evaporating before my eyes - after discussion with some of the guys in chat who had pictures of the match I decided to let the trade run until it was a scratch, and at the same time I laid 1-2 at just over evens. Sure enough the equaliser came - so it was decision time - with about 12 minutes left to play. I laid 2-2 and laid the draw with some of the green I'd already got - at this stage I was +22 if a draw or + 114 if not a draw, with £6 on 2-2 and £42 on anything else. Almost unbelievably, with what must have been nearly the last kick of the game, United won it! Over £160 before commission, and the nice thing is that at any one time the most I had exposed was about £40!

I also had a nice £50 lay of 0-0 in a Polish game - which was also won with the last kick of the game, and a small profit from the Metz v Le Mans game in France.

The screenshot below is of my profit and loss account from Betfair for this period...

Until the weekend....

A mixed night in the Europa League

For all the millions of pounds spent on players I remain far from convinced by the credentials of Manchester City. Today, having travelled to Poland they took on Lech Poznan. Some clubs, by the nature of their actual prowess, command low prices. Others, by the nature of their perceived prowess are too highly priced by the markets. Manchester City are an example of the latter and when I saw them priced at 1.82 at kick off I couldn't resist a £20 lay. They came out of the blocks at double time, and in short order my trade was looking dodgy with nasty red figures dancing alongside their column on my Evo screen. I steeled myself for an uncomfortable start to the evening but I needn't have worried as Lech took an early lead. I greened up immediately, and then, after City equalised sat tight waiting for the draw odds to drop away before submitting a lay using half the profit I'd greened earlier as the liability. Lech took the lead, and I greened up, with typically bad timing, a second before they put the game to bed by going 3-1 up!

A Scatter Gun on the Ghent game, and a speculative low liability lay of 0-0 in the Villareal games ensured a profitable start to the evening's trading.

For round two of the day's Europa ties I ran five simultaneous Scatter Guns, one of which involved Liverpool (incidentally another team you can often lay at far too low a price due to their reputation!). I should have known that a game involving Paris St Germain had 0-0 written all over it, but I failed to secure cover on that score and paid the price! Similarly the matches between Getafe and Stuttgart and Hadjuk Split and Zenit both went to 3-0. I was able to reduce liabilities in both games as the goals went in and actually made a small profit on the Split game by laying Any Unquoted for a while after it went 0-3. The Liverpool game was a classic SG - the underdog scoring first and the favourites coming from behind to secure a victory. I'd increased my exposure slightly during the second half by backing 0-2 and 2-2 - ignoring the 3-1 scoreline! Anyway I was just able to green up on 2-1 before Gerrard knocked the third goal in. The match between AEK and Anderlecht ended 1-1 so I got a small profit - despite being one of the three key scores backed in this strategy, if 1-1 is the result the profit is usually modest because, if you've any sense, you'd have laid some of it to cover stakes and to load the 1-2 and 2-1 scores. Nevertheless a profit! The downside of the 8 o'clock kick offs was me laying U3.5 goals for £100 in the Sampdoria game which ended goalless - so a £6 loss there!

I actually lost money in the evening session, so ended the day a respectable £15 ahead of where I'd started.