I've a day off tomorrow and there is an enticing Copa Sudamerica tie between Goias of Brazil and Penarol of Uruguay at 11.30 BST. There are no recent head to heads between the teams, and I've a suspicion that the fact that Goias are trading at twice the price of their opponents is based on little more than the notion of home advantage. The reason I'm interested tonight is that the game is 'live' on Betfair tv - and that gives relatively safe scalping opportunities.
The correct score and goal markets don't really shed any light on the game either - 1-1 being the favourite on CS and u 2.5 trading at 1.9 ish and O2.5 at 2.1 ish - with 50 minutes or so to kick off.
My initial reaction was, wait for it, 1-1 1-2 2-1! But I'm going to try something a bit different. I am Dutch backing all scores to 1-2 2-1 and am intending to scalp 0-0 0-1 1-0 for the first 15 minutes, slowly reducing my red on the non covered scores, and increasing my green on the covered scores. I'll make use of the hedged tick offset tool in Evo to do this automatically for me.
I've invested £100 in this trade - which is way too high in proportion to my bank. Don't fret - I haven't taken leave of my senses! I am prepared to lose £20 if it all goes completely tits up, so will be looking to cover £80 of that exposure in other ways - primarily by laying U3.5 in stages as the game goes on...
My goal in this sort of trade is what you might term 20/20 - as in vision! In other words I'm looking for a 20% return, and am prepared to lose 20% if it goes wrong...If it goes well and it's 1-2 or 2-1 by 70 minutes I could find myself in the fantastic situation of having a huge green on CS and a similar figure sitting on o3.5.... we'll see...
Wednesday, 13 October 2010
Tuesday, 12 October 2010
I'm in danger of letting this slip....
It pains me to say, but since re-entering my professional role on a full-time basis, my trading and blogging have been suffering horrendously. Most evenings I'm not getting in before 7 - 7.15 and with the majority of games kicking off at 7.45 or 8pm there is little time after I've eaten to prepare properly.. The net result is that in the rush to pick a game my whole modus operandi has been nuked! I'm making poor decisions, and compounding those poor decisions in-play by putting myself under too much pressure to make a profit. Inevitably, my average profit is therefore lower than it was, and I'm staying in too long or getting out too early. The nature of the job I do, retail main dealer vehicle sales, means that I work every Saturday and every other Sunday. So I find myself questioning where to go from here...
A glance at the last few day's results sheds some light on what I'm talking about...
With two days not traded at all, and mediocre results on the other days since my last update you can see what I mean! On a positive note, I am still marginally ahead of the game, massively so when the withdrawals already made are factored in. The goal is still achievable within the time frame, and I genuinely believe the 1-1 1-2 2-1 trade will continue to work for me more times than it goes against me.
I am also conscious that after trading late and tired the last thing I really want to be doing is writing a detailed but downbeat blog post! The quality and frequency of my posts have dropped off, and many fewer people are reading my missives now!
So, what to do??
The easy thing to do would be to say 'sorry folks, I've fcuked it up and am quitting whilst I'm ahead!' But I'm not a quitter by nature. So we're stuck with each other, like it or not!
Having said that, I've got to be realistic - I can't trade as I was doing up to three weeks ago. Simple - can't be done! But, as I said at the beginning, fortunately I don't rely on trading for an income, and don't really need the extra money badly enough to enforce self-discipline on myself - which was why I came up with the whole idea of both the compounding concept and of writing all this lot!
So this is what I'm going to do...
I will continue to trade toward my original goal, but my emphasis is going to shift away from the stated aim and if I fall short of the target so be it. I am not going to trade every night, but will probably do two or three evenings in mid-week with the occasional Saturday evening and Sunday trade thrown in. I'll focus on the 1-1 1-2 2-1 strategy, but, as much for variety as any other reason, will throw in the odd full blown correct score trade as well. I will update the blog only when I trade, and the post will be detailed, as they used to be. My aim now is to head in the general direction of £2000 by NYE but the emphasis more than ever will be on trading correctly and bank preservation.
I've read through the above and think it makes sense, but I've just got back from a 500 mile round trip with a day's training squeezed in as well so it could well be gobbledegook - I'll let you decide!
Thursday, 7 October 2010
Keep an eye open for low liability lays....
Starting Bank: £286.01
2 Day Target (2.5%): £14.30
Sorry guys - another multi day results posting!
As traders we spend a lot of time bemoaning low or, worse, no scoring games. It also seems that of late I have been bemoaning a spate of very early goals! A second minute goal in the MK Dons v Charlton JPT match on Monday came before I was fully matched on my 1-1 1-2 2-1 scorelines, resulting in a less than optimal trade. Again this was due to my getting home and fired up literally seconds before kick off! The annoying thing is that, once again, the match finished 1-2 and got there via 1-1! It should have paid handsomely! The early goal does present other opportunities - in this instance I was able to make a few quid by laying O 2.5 goals at low odds. Of course, in doing so, you run the risk of another early goal so this needs to be done cautiously!
Never mind, the match between Mansfield and Wimbledon in the Blue Square Premier also fitted the profile. Wham, another very early goal! In fact, Wimbledon were 0-2 by 9 minutes leaving little option but to get out for whatever I could - which was a small red. This crazy game finished 2-5 where the pre-match analysis and 'gut feeling' suggested a tight relatively low scoring game!
Last night's match was the Johnstone's Paint Trophy tie between Burton and Rotherham. The result was 1-2 but unfortunately this came via the 0-2 scoreline which limits profits because at 2-0 or 0-2 another goal to the leading team kills the trade. If the game goes 2-0 or 0-2 you then HAVE to decide whether to stick or twist! I can't afford with this experiment to take unnecessary risks so I got out for a very modest profit.
The first goal in this game didn't arrive until the 65th minute, yet it finished 1-2. I had been tracking the odds of U2.5 and U 3.5 from half time. In fact I laid U3.5 at 1.04 for £35 - a liability of £1.40. Unfortunately I greened up after the second goal, but had I waited just a few minutes the third goal sent the odds spinning right out!
These low liability lays in the goals markets happen very frequently. I intended to trade the Fluminese v Santos match which started at 11.30 BST last night but fatigue got the better of me. The match ended 0-3 and the first goal came at 57 minutes. I would guess that a lay of U2.5 at about 1.2 would have been possible at 55 minutes - so a £2 outlay could have netted £10 .... and so on. Of course, if you lay a minute or two before a goal, you can take an immediate green or at the very least cover your liability to give a 'free bet' if the goals continue to flow.
2 Day's Profit: £17.38
Bank to carry forward: £303.39
2 Day Target (2.5%): £14.30
Sorry guys - another multi day results posting!
As traders we spend a lot of time bemoaning low or, worse, no scoring games. It also seems that of late I have been bemoaning a spate of very early goals! A second minute goal in the MK Dons v Charlton JPT match on Monday came before I was fully matched on my 1-1 1-2 2-1 scorelines, resulting in a less than optimal trade. Again this was due to my getting home and fired up literally seconds before kick off! The annoying thing is that, once again, the match finished 1-2 and got there via 1-1! It should have paid handsomely! The early goal does present other opportunities - in this instance I was able to make a few quid by laying O 2.5 goals at low odds. Of course, in doing so, you run the risk of another early goal so this needs to be done cautiously!
Never mind, the match between Mansfield and Wimbledon in the Blue Square Premier also fitted the profile. Wham, another very early goal! In fact, Wimbledon were 0-2 by 9 minutes leaving little option but to get out for whatever I could - which was a small red. This crazy game finished 2-5 where the pre-match analysis and 'gut feeling' suggested a tight relatively low scoring game!
Last night's match was the Johnstone's Paint Trophy tie between Burton and Rotherham. The result was 1-2 but unfortunately this came via the 0-2 scoreline which limits profits because at 2-0 or 0-2 another goal to the leading team kills the trade. If the game goes 2-0 or 0-2 you then HAVE to decide whether to stick or twist! I can't afford with this experiment to take unnecessary risks so I got out for a very modest profit.
The first goal in this game didn't arrive until the 65th minute, yet it finished 1-2. I had been tracking the odds of U2.5 and U 3.5 from half time. In fact I laid U3.5 at 1.04 for £35 - a liability of £1.40. Unfortunately I greened up after the second goal, but had I waited just a few minutes the third goal sent the odds spinning right out!
These low liability lays in the goals markets happen very frequently. I intended to trade the Fluminese v Santos match which started at 11.30 BST last night but fatigue got the better of me. The match ended 0-3 and the first goal came at 57 minutes. I would guess that a lay of U2.5 at about 1.2 would have been possible at 55 minutes - so a £2 outlay could have netted £10 .... and so on. Of course, if you lay a minute or two before a goal, you can take an immediate green or at the very least cover your liability to give a 'free bet' if the goals continue to flow.
2 Day's Profit: £17.38
Bank to carry forward: £303.39
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