tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post2962258205594633986..comments2024-02-20T15:20:03.635+00:00Comments on Betfair Football Trading - the highs and lows!: Some questions for the statisticians....gundulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-58821550177300387662012-01-19T21:55:09.353+00:002012-01-19T21:55:09.353+00:00Hello Gundulf,
I'm portuguese and I discover ...Hello Gundulf,<br /><br />I'm portuguese and I discover your blog last month. Let me say thank you because I feel I learned a lot with you.<br />One question if possible:<br /><br />If it's possible can you please tell me how does the odd 3-0 moves with an early goal? Imagine a favorite with +-1.80.<br /><br />Thank you very much!José Pereiranoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680353125544172685.post-76965133217819627382012-01-17T05:59:31.551+00:002012-01-17T05:59:31.551+00:00A zero-inflated Poisson model doesn't work bec...A zero-inflated Poisson model doesn't work because of the under-estimation of 0 and 1 goals, and thus the draw is significantly underrated. The two keys are modifying this and calculating the goal expectancy in the first place. People have different ideas on this, how many matches to include or weighting them for example. As for calculating the probability of 4 goals or more, simply sum the probabilities of 0, 1, 2 and 3 goals, and subtract this total from 1. Check out my flatfish post today http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2012/01/flatfish.htmlCassinihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.com